Today I discuss Congress’ proposal of taxing unrealized capital gains for individuals with over $1B in Net Worth. I’m curious how this will work and if the government will collect anywhere near the $250B that they predict. Matt Robison is an expert in public policy and capital hill, so it’s the perfect chance for us to discuss this topic.
Enjoy the wide-ranging discussion on the intersection of public policy and personal finance!
I was fascinated for his take, so I hope you enjoy the show.[:[:[:[:[:[:[:
I'm not making this up. We've done no preparation whatsoever, but this is the confluence of some area of expert. For me, my background is in policy, in legislation in Congress. I was a congressional staffer for about a decade. And then I worked in the state Senate of New Hampshire. So I crashed Davis.
I went from the big leagues to triple a ball and I've had experience on both levels. And Mike obviously is a financial advisor, especially to entrepreneurs and tech professionals. We're going to try and we're going to merge the streams here, like in Ghostbusters and Mike, what are we talking about today?[:
So this morning's news was, earlier, few weeks ago it was marginal tax rate. Tax rates might go up, for high fire, high income earners and some other provisions. And this morning's news was scrapping some of that and doing a quote unquote wealth tax on the billionaires to tax unrealized.
Appreciated gains capital gains. So capital gains, but you haven't sold that normally when you sell that appreciated stock or house or commercial building, and it's gone up in value that's when you say, oh, I, I made a couple of hundred thousand it's appreciated. And so therefore you owe taxes on that game.
So the proposal is for people that have over 1 billion in assets or make more than $100 million per year for three years. That Congress would, the government would tax unrealized, appreciated gains. And so I was just very interested to how this is going to happen. So that's where my brain went. Like, how would they actually put this into place?
And then I thought of Matt with all your policy that the quote in the paper was, this will raise $250 billion in tax revenue. From this unrealized appreciated assets. And my immediate thought was like, there's no chance. These people that have a billion dollars, we'll figure out ways to avoid taxes.
And so I was very curious from Matt's perspective on where did those numbers come from?
Like the 250 billion that they expect to get over 10 years. How Realistic.
are these things looking backwards when they've said this in the past,[:
This is a longstanding issue that really does hit this intersection point between politics. Policy and finance, which is how do we treat capital gains. Now, back in the day, one of the things that you and I both learned when we were both economic students, is that capital gains are weird. We tax them in a strange way because they exist in this Netherland.
I was about to say the nether regions. That's not really where they exist.[:[:
And you bought it at a hundred dollars a share, and now it's trading at $150 a share. You could sell that today and you could make money. You would have a big profit off of that investment. And so what the government says essentially is today, At if you're, let's say you're going to plan to sell it at two at three o'clock at 2 59, you have not made any money, even though you own an asset, that's worth a lot of money.
It is. It is. It's a real asset. You could sell it at any time. But the government says, Nope, it's not real until it's a little bit like being in the casino. You have chips that you've won in a game and they're worth real money at any time you could go to the window, the cashier and trade them in and have dollar.
But they're not real until you do that. And so what happens is we tax capital gains are actually something that are very popular, especially for Democrats to tax. Why? Because wealthier people. Tend to own investments in stocks. That's not the kind of thing that lower income people tend to have.
And so it just tends to hit wealthier people more. And in this country in general, we believe we should tax wealthy people more, but here's the dirty little secret. What we say. We tax capital gains. That is not really what we tax capital gains at. There's what we call the nominal rate of taxation, which is whatever it says, it's 15%.
But the reality. Is that because we don't tax capital gains until you show up at the cashier and turn it into cash. The real rate of taxation is way, way lower. What does that do? It[:[:[:
Because you didn't sell yours.[:[:[:
Google founders and you have hundreds and hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars of these assets, you don't want to sell. Because you don't,[:[:
And then what's going to happen is I'm going to have my investments that make an average of let's. Let's be generous. Let's say it's only 6%. And I've alone that I paid 2% interest on. And so this is a money-making proposition for[:[:
And so you can begin to see why politically again, Democrats like to tax the wealthiest among us, and you can begin to see why this is an attractive idea.[:
to tax unrealized, appreciated assets or capital gains because it's all sitting out there and so much of it avoids tax altogether. So my first question to you, Matt is that $250 billion. What was quoted in the paper that, that Congress, I don't know who said it, that we expect, I guess it's the federal bureau office or the FBI says, oh, we're gonna, over 10 years, we're going to get $250 billion of tax revenue by taxing this in the past.
I've seen those quotes, oh, if we make this change, we will get X, billion of dollars. How much, how often is that true? That over that 10 year period, they actually get that money.[:
That sounds like a good idea to most people, right? You should have some idea. And so they have to come up with a theory. Of what things are going to cost. They're not always right. They're frequently wrong, but what it does, the effect of it is for anyone who's ever been on a weight loss program, maybe using an app like my fitness pal or weight Watchers, which gives points instead of counting calories is it'll ask you, what did you eat?
Like I had a chicken sandwich. How many calories was that? How accurate is that estimate going to be? You had a chicken sandwich. Was there Mayo on it? What kind of bread was there? Was it reconstituted chicken? Was it subway? All these things come in. And so what do you basically put in a swag, which is, it stands for a scientific wild I'm not going to say what the AA stands for, but it's another word for a donkey.
It's a it's science. Wild guess. And you put in a guess and what tends to happen is that all those swags, all those guesses at the very least what they do is they they add[:
you. So you're like you're in the ballpark, but I just read that number to be honest. And I was like, there's no chance they're going to get anywhere close to that because of, simple things, like not simple things, complicated structures that are available or will be available to avoid taxes.
So we're talking about people that make it, that have over a billion dollars of that. Or make over a hundred million dollars per year for three years. Okay. And they said in an article.
that's about a thousand us citizens. All right. So a thousand people out there are suddenly going to get hit with tax bills of billions of dollars.
What are you going to do, Matt, if you have a few billion and you're like, geez, this tax bill is going to cost me $500 million. I think I'm going to spend quite a bit of money.
trying to figure out how to not lose $500 million.[:
We're going to raise money by doing a few different things among them. We're going to go after. Hi income, high net worth people who are not paying their taxes. We're going to actually increase the enforcement ability of the IRS. To go after most of the time, what happens is there's zero auditing there's zero people know that we're on the honor system here.
And so what happens is that economists estimate, look, if you did more enforced. More auditing that would send a signal to people that you can't get away with this stuff. We know that people are skipping out on this stuff because we have the release of the Panama papers, and there's all these revelations that are coming out that internationally people who are high net worth are avoiding their taxes.
So there's no good[:
Because if the IRS comes after me, which is very low risk to start with. I have very high pay attorneys to fight this. It's a[:
so why is, this is a thousand people were talking about why wouldn't the IRS be like a hundred percent focused on these people? First, the payoff seems to be way greater than just going after the average.[:
That's one thing, another thing to bear in mind is that when the congressional budget office scores, something like this, they factor in that people are still gonna find ways to avoid it. There that's a little bit baked into that 250 billion, a lot of any road you go. Assumptions like that are going to be a little bit baked in the real reason I suspect I can't prove this, but the real reason I suspect that Democrats have chosen to go down this road is that there's a funny thing that happens in politics when Democrats, especially, look, the way it works out is Democrats are the ones who want to raise taxes on the wealthy Republicans are the ones who want to cut taxes on the wealthy, but what voters here.
Is every part of that sentence, except for on the wealthy, they actually don't believe the, on the wealthy part, all they hear is raise taxes, lower taxes, and Democrats will shout till they're blue in the face. That w it's what Joe Biden's been saying. No one who makes under $400,000 a year is going to have higher taxes[:[:
You assess a tax on that it gets passed through to consumers. And that means you and me, we make under $40,000 a year. But so what the Biden administration is proposing is we would send that back in a rebate. So at the end of the day, if you're paying some, you're going to get it back. You real not pay any additional taxes.
It's complicated, but if you want to keep political promises like this, one of the things that's appealing. About going after just these super high people and saying it's these thousand people. If you're not on the list, it doesn't
include you is, oh, that's actually pretty definable for people. That's something that people might actually believe[:
So that makes sense.
But a lot of these, I assume a lot of these thousand individuals have massive amounts in private areas as well, and can easily translate from public to private. This is why the whole avoidance thing is just gonna be. I'm not
going to be say they're easy ways and I'm not I'm not an expert.
Let me put it this way, Matt. I don't have a lot of billion dollar clients. So I'm not an expert in all these strategies, but you can pretty easily imagine how you can swap public assets for private assets. Make things hard, obfuscate things, and make them hard to understand and get rid of assets in such a way that you don't need them to live.
If you've got a few billion dollar. Like you said, you go to the bank and borrow money. You can get rid of assets in different ways by dynasty trusts and charitable trusts and other types of strategies to reduce them, get them out of your estate.[:
We spend a lot of time on this show talking about how to move money around to avoid taxes. And some of that can be intentional. If you set up your policy in a smart way, that's one of the reasons. for example, put a lot of taxes on things like cigarettes, because you want people to invest less in smoking.
That's a policy outcome that you're looking for. I do think one of the interesting findings. Recently has been that revelations, like the Panama papers matter, they actually have an impact. These high net worth ultra high net worth individuals do care to some degree. Not everyone. A lot of them have a kind of double-barreled forget you kind of reaction to this stuff, but they do seem to care.
And yes. You're probably setting up incentives for people to move assets around. Hey, if you're going to assess this capital gains realization tax to me, if I'm above a certain net worth, yada and it's going to apply to these kinds of assets, like these kinds of stocks, but not to let's say real estate assets.
What am I going to do? I'm gonna sell some stocks and I'm going to move things over. We'll probably catch some people in the transfer anyway and get some tax out of that. But at the end of the day, what you're hoping is that you can shame people. Into paying more of their taxes. People don't want to end up on public lists that it's like, you're worth $3 billion dude.
And you're paying like less in taxes than I do that. That seems wrong. And people don't like to be on public lists like[:
they were going to retroactively look at the capital gains. What was it like in beginning of October, September, That's when the date was going to come in so that you couldn't just go ahead.
It's not oh, this is coming in six months or a year. And so that you could sell things and get the current rate, or give things away. It was like, no, it was going to be backdated like this date here in the last quarter which I found surprising as well, and that wasn't in this reason article that isn't in.
A few weeks ago it said, oh yeah, this change that's being thought about. I think it was a capital gains. The changing the capital gains taxation rate was going to be retroactive[:
You want them to still want to work to their maximum extent. You want to get the most tax with kind of like the least tax burden. You can, all those things. The reality is. Everyone's got a plan. What did what did Mike Tyson say? Everyone's got a plan until they get punched in the face,[:[:
And these things are complicated. Like they're super hard to enforce. You gotta think about that. There's people's public perceptions of them. Often bear, no resemblance whatsoever to the reality, these things. So you could say, Hey, we're only raising taxes on people worth more than a billion dollars a year.
And people were like, I don't know. I don't trust that. And so once it all goes through the sausage making process of Washington DC, you get some pretty nice. Tax outcomes. And that's why people like you have a business to run because
try to navigate simple ways of saving money.[:
Of course, you can make a flat tax progressive. This is this is actually a thing you can do it. It's all about what's in the base of the tax. So what does the tax apply to and what does it not? But then you run into all these gradual realities. Again, you run into.[:[:
And yeah, it's, there's no good answers. But at the top of the show, your question was, is this 250 billion that they're projecting real? I think the short answer to all of that. it's probably not real, but yes, they probably have thought about all the tax avoidance that's going to happen. If they do this, it's probably the politically most expedient thing to do.
And if they're off by a little bit, they're ballparking with all this stuff.[:[:[: